Common Sense and Whiskey

Being Recep Tayyip

“To see me does not necessarily mean to see my face. To understand my thoughts is to have seen me.” - Mustafa Kemal Ataturk

A penny for the thoughts of the Turkish Prime Minister as he surveys his world this weekend.

Almost forty years ago the leader of Cyprus fled a military coup. With cover from the upheaval, Turkish troops invaded the island’s north and still control it today. None of the rest of the world recognizes Turkey’s legitimacy there, but the Turkish flag still flies and Turkish Airlines runs nine domestic flights from Istanbul daily.

This weekend the Prime Minister will be watching as turmoil roils the other side of the island. Brought to ruin by exposure to Greek banks, the two largest banks in sovereign Cyprus have been closed for a week. Without a bailout, they are insolvent. The European Union, into which Turkey has been steadfastly denied an invitation, threatens to eject the “legitimate” half of Cyprus by Monday.

Nicosia, where ethnic Turkish and Greek Cyprus meet, is 225 miles across the sea from Aleppo near Turkey’s border with Syria. It’s Turkey’s longest land border, and as the PM surveys his domain from Ankara, the Syrian opposition meets under Turkey’s auspices in Istanbul.

A UNHCR map dated March 5th shows 185,000 Syrian war refugees living on the border within Turkey. Last June the Syrian military shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom II military jet and at peril of being dragged into active combat, the PM bit his lip and took it.

Ten months ago Syrian forces withdrew from the Kurdish desert to defend Aleppo and Damascus. In January fighting broke out between Kurdish and Arab militias in Syria’s far northeast. The Turkish Prime Minister will be wary of a pan-Kurdish movement spanning Syria, Iraq and his own southeast emerging from the Syrian conflict.

So now comes Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s boldest gambit.

Erdogan is a former mayor of Istanbul. Twenty miles across the Sea of Marmara from Istanbul on Imrali Island sits a man vilified by Turkish media as “The Baby Killer.” Abdullah Öcalan is leader of the Turkish Kurds, a fifth of the population, and leader of a waxing and waning guerrilla war blamed for some 40,000 deaths. Since his arrest in Nairobi in 1999 (he had been based in Syria before being forced to flee) Öcalan has been one of just six terrorist-prisoners there, held in solitary confinement.

Last Wednesday March 13, in the first of a series of choreographed moves, the PKK, the organization of the Turkish Kurds, released eight Turks held for a year. Yesterday, on the occasion of the big Kurdish spring festival of Nowruz, Abdullah Öcalan called for PKK forces to cease fire and withdraw from Turkey to their base across the border in northern Iraq.

Öcalan has been allowed to meet in prison with Kurdish lawmakers. It’s said he sent a hand written letter authorizing Kurdish guerrilla leaders to lay down their arms, in return for guarantees of peace, and protection of the Kurds in a new Turkish constitution.

•••••

Prime Minister Erdogan is in the maximum third successive parliamentary term allowed by his party, the AKP. He eyes the Presidency, now largely ceremonial. Speculation is that support from Kurdish lawmakers would give him the parliamentary heft to pass constitutional reforms redefining the powers of the presidency, for which he would stand as the AKP’s candidate in 2014.

Erdogan is widely popular and in firm control, but “The Baby Killer” facilitating his continued rule in return for peace and constitutional guarantees of inclusion for the Kurds may be a tough sell. Last month 50% of Turks advocated military force to resolve the terrorism problem. They have been taught to revile the imprisoned leader of the Turkish Kurds for more than a decade.

The ironies are plenty. Today Turkey is the biggest foreign economic player in Iraqi Kurdistan. 20,000 Turks have moved to Erbil. Turkish VakifBank opened there last month. 1500 trucks cross the border every day in each direction. Turkish and Atlasjet Airlines offer daily flights from Istanbul, and Turkish another to Sulaymaniyah. The Turkish consul general in Erbil says trade with Iraqi Kurdistan “... is equal to what we have for Syria, Lebanon, Jordan combined.”

•••••

Prime Minister Erdogan will be watching as the situation on Cyprus (brought on, in turn, by calamity in another of Turkey’s neighbors, Greece), comes to a head next week. Meanwhile, with a refugee emergency in his own country, opposition groups meeting under Turkish auspices in Istanbul and accusations of the use of chemical weapons, what good can he hope for from across his Syrian border?

What’s remarkable is that those aren’t his biggest challenges.

Erdogan will now try to forge an enduring peace with the Turkish Kurds. In the process he will need to at least partially rehabilitate the Baby Killer, Abdullah Öcalan before a skeptical Turkish public. If he can manage that, writing a new constitution to allow his continued rule may seem like the easy part.

Governor Romney's 42 Allies

 

"We're the great nation that has allies - 42 allies and friends around the world," the Governor told us in last night's debate. Here, for the record, are the United States' 42 allies, according to Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul:

First there are the NATO allies: Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom. Then there are a few more: Australia, Egypt, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Jordan, New Zealand, Argentina, Bahrain, Philippines, Thailand, Kuwait, Morocco, Pakistan, Afghanistan.

Unfortunately, we appear not to be allied with Singapore or Taiwan or Indonesia or Austria or Switzerland or Sweden or Finland or Ireland or South Africa. But we're solid with Bulgaria.

In arguing for engagement with Latin America, Governor Romney pointed out that its "economy is almost as big as the economy of China." How are we set for allies down that way? Not Chile or Uruguay or Peru or Colombia or Brazil or Panama or Costa Rica or Mexico or any island in the Carribbean. Darn it, our only ally in Latin America is Argentina.

One other thing, which relates to the previous article on geography: Governor Romney said "Syria is Iran's only ally in the Arab world. It's their route to the sea."

Activity: In your atlas, find "Persian Gulf." Note proximity to Iran.

Dear London,

Good luck.

From a friend in London:

"The latest is that the security firm is not secure, the food and drinks companies will not be supplying food or drink and the British archery Paralympic champion got that way in a road-rage attack. On the rare occasions that I go into London, I hear messages from Boris Johnson, London’s blond explosion of a mayor, telling me that transport will be disrupted so I’m not learning anything to my advantage so far.

I would use the comedy channel to wake up to but they don’t do time-checks.

My favourite local cafe was visited by the police ... the POLICE! ... because she had a poster on the wall publicising her Olympic Onion Rings! It wasn’t the name that was the problem, it was use of the logo of the Olympic rings  – those symbols of unity and cooperation in sport – depicted in rings of onion. The POLICE are now defending the commercial interests of international organisations that CLAIM to be non-profit! (don’t start me on MacDonald’s and Coke!).

Frankly, I want to hide under the bed but there isn’t room what with all the monitoring devices and special agents under there already."

Gee, Nowadays Everybody’s Going to Cuba

Over the weekend there were features on CNN, BBC and in the Financial Times about Cuba, and now MSNBC has a live hour from Cathedral Square in Havana all this week.

A couple of weeks ago our local paper, the Atlanta Journal Constitution ran a story in its sports section about a trip to a baseball game in Havana. Oh, and the Pope is in town.

Here's a banner welcoming the Pope that hangs ouside the Catedral de la Virgen María de la Concepción Inmaculada de La Habana (Cathedral of The Virgin Mary of the Immaculate Conception) in Old Havana.

And below, the Cathedral itself.

Check out the Cuba Gallery at EarthPhotos.com. We're populating it with photos from our trip earlier this month. There are something around forty there now.

 

 

Election Year Politics

"This President has taken a very dangerous course with regards to Cuba, saying we're going to relax relations, we're going to open up travel to Cuba. This is the wrong time for that…."

- Mitt Romney in the NBC Debate, 23 January, 2012

Since anything is liable to be said in an election year, and since this remark was tailored to the Florida Latino community, it remains to be seen how fervently Mr. Romney believes what he said, but a couple of questions:

- What's dangerous? Is Governor Romney concerned that Americans might adopt the Cuban revolution as a model for our politics? The Cuban economic model as ours?  Maybe if we talk to the Castros they'll, what, invade? Or maybe if we just give our sixty year policy of economic sanctions and travel restrictions a little more time, it'll work?

- Why is this the wrong time to open up travel to Cuba? Would it have been better ten years ago? Will it be better ten years from now? (In fact, best I can tell, the current "people to people" program was instituted by President Clinton in March 1998, and later restricted by President Bush. The Cubans were even wary of the program at first.)

Governor Romney said it. I'm just asking.

You'd think denying American business access to the Cuban market would rile up the business wing of Mr. Romney's party. And then there's the matter of denying Americans their freedom to travel, for political reasons.

We're going to take advantage of the President's 'dangerous course' while it's available, with a trip to Cuba in March. Watch for reports here on CS&W.

Now THAT'S Austerity

In an article about the pain of yesterday's rating downgrade, the New York Times reports that, "In Paris, for example, a sparkling light show that illuminated the Eiffel Tower for 10 minutes every hour after dark has been cut to 5 minutes."

Havel, Hitchens & Kim

You've probably seen the tweet, "I'd like to think God let Havel and Hitchens pick the third," attributed to @jstrevino. Got it just right.

And I commend to you this fine blog.

Instructive List of Greek Austerity Measures

If all this were about to happen in your country, you might go out into the street and wave a banner, too.

Tough Call: Conrad Murray or the Drachma

From the Climbing Mt. Kinabalu chapter in the book, Common Sense and Whiskey (Kindle):

"Twice we passed Japanese girls in flip-flops, and the last one was really hobbling, on her boyfriend's arm. Mountain climbing may involve stepping over rocks. Apparently they were not told."

•••••

Reading and writing about travel is fun for some of us, just like for others, Conrad Murray and Kim Kardashian are important. But right now, travel news, news from the popular culture and news about the usual American political disfunction are trifles. I say, read well and deeply into the Eurozone's dilemma.

Do it now and do it urgently. What happens in the Eurozone is far more consequential than all the low brow antics of Herman Cain and the rest of the Republican presidential field combined. It's the most compelling story of 2011/2012, and it's pending right now. You have been told.

Kidnapping Deadly for Victim, Resort

There is news this morning that Marie Dedieu, a 66 year old Frenchwoman kidnapped from Kenya by suspected Somali militants earlier this month has died in captivity. The BBC reports that the Somali kidnappers did not take her wheelchair or medication with them.

Ms. Dedieu was kidnapped from the small island of Manda, part of the Lamu archipelago which, as you can see in this Google map, is about 75 miles south of the Somali border.

There is a resort on Manda called Manda Bay. Perhaps it's more accurate to say there WAS a resort there. The proprietors point out that Ms. Didieu was "believed to be a home owner on the Lamu side of Manda Island," and not resident at their resort. Nevertheless, a kidnapping from your little resort island can't be good for business.

So they've relocated their guests elsewhere and "Manda Bay will remain closed until we are totally confident that sufficient security has been provided for the whole area. "

I'm going to bet that'll be approximately never.

Read the Manda Bay statement.

Jigme Gets Hitched

Congratulations to the Bhutanese people. Looks like they're having a huge party around today's royal wedding.

Have you noticed? Most of the time the tone of news articles about Bhutan is a little bemused, treating the Kingdom of the Thunder Dragon as kind of quaint and not quite of this world. Writers always try to mention that "gross national happiness" thing, which started "as a casual, offhand remark" by the previous King. I admit to having treated Bhutan the same way in my book, quoting a man named Phruba about a  

"Ceremony day after (He meant tomorrow) for weather making. It is big this year because this year we have two Junes." He paused. "Sometimes we have no August."

Excuse me?

He knew he had us and he warmed to the subject. "Oh yes. Today is the ninth. Maybe sometimes we have two ninths and maybe no eleventh. This is decided by the monks and they always agree."

It’s published in Kuensel (the newspaper) every Saturday, so you have to check.

"This is why you cannot know when are the festivals."

•••••

That quote comes from the Bhutan chapter of Common Sense and Whiskey, the book. You can read the entire chapter online.

The photo at the top is from Punakha, the site of the royal wedding. It's at the confluence of the Mo and Pho rivers. See over a hundred photos in the Bhutan Gallery at EarthPhotos.com.

And if you ever hear anything, please let me know where I can pick up a pair of these Royal boots.

 

 

Japanese Nuclear Propaganda

An article in the current New Yorker tells us about about the frightening Little Pluto (for plutonium) Boy, a cartoon used to indoctrinate children about the benefits of nuclear power. Here's a clip on You Tube.

Zambian Democracy

Nice to see the peaceful transfer of power to a new President in Zambia. Had a little email chat with the people at Kapani Lodge in the South Luangwa National Park this morning. They said President Banda was gracious in defeat, that it's all very exciting and they're proud. Best of luck to incoming President Sata.

Several years ago we spent a week at Kapani Lodge and other Norman Carr Safaris properties in South Luangwa. They're really great people. Couldn't have been nicer. Here's one of their bush camps. That's the "honeymoon suite" in the background.

Check out some wildlife photos in the Zambia Gallery at EarthPhotos.com.

When Money Doesn't Matter #9

Michele Bachmann's in the news for politics, but more importantly, how does she travel?

Ryan Lizza's long biography in the current New Yorker informs us that Bachmann's campaign has traveled in a Dassault Falcon 900, and that she told Lizza, "Isn't this an incredible way to fly? I've never been on a nicer plane in my life."

So let's see.

The Dassalut Falcon is a trijet. Various iterations of the 900 can fly from 4150 to 4750 miles. Here's the web site. I found several used Falcons on sale, ranging from a 1986 model for just $6,700,000 to a nice 1994 for $15,300,000.

 

Watching the Libyan War in Luxury

Here's where the journalists reporting from Tripoli, Libya are staying:

It's the Rixos al-Nasr Hotel. This article says rooms are $435 per night. And it says:

"Some would call it perverse, the idea that journalists are spooning the foam from their cappuccinos in the hotel's outdoor bar while precision bombs rip apart bunkers and probably soldiers just beyond the nearby trees. But life at the Rixos and at Bab al-Aziziya follows its own rules. Gadhafi's people escort the reporters to the hotel, and guards are posted in the driveway to prevent them from setting out on their own."

Photo from the hotel's web site.

Down Down Assad

In 2000 when Hafez al-Assad died, we were in Vietnam, and curtailed a day of tourism to watch the news play out on CNN. Since having read Patrick Seale's definitive Asad: The Struggle for the Millde East, I've had a special appetite for his little eye doctor boy's regime to go. Let the chips fall where they may, and let us hope we can all visit a free Damascus soon. We can hope, can't we?

The Belgravia Dispatch weighs in.

Why El Salvador?

Heather Berkman writes in Foreign Policy that it's mostly about drug interdiction. Plus there's no place much better in Central America for a U.S. president to visit:

"... El Salvador has remained politically stable. Honduras is still regrouping following the ouster of President Manuel Zelaya in 2009. Guatemala's government lacks the resources and the political will to effectively combat drug traffickers. Throw in the likely reelection of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua this year, Washington's ongoing tensions with Panama's mercurial President Ricardo Martinelli, and Costa Rica's lack of regional political weight, and El Salvador begins to look more like Washington's foothold in the region."

Entering El Salvador overland from Guatemala, bananas welcomed us to this republic.

From EarthPhotos.com.

Will They or Won't They?

A survey of North Korea coverage:

A military blog called Information Dissemination, which describes itself as "the intersection of maritime strategy and strategic communication" thinks it's possible. In the post "One Sep from War," it says,

"the last straws have been broken. The US has always been on South Korean time, and it appears the clock is set only a minute until midnight."

Nightwatch for last night agrees that,

"Tension is high and small incidents can lead to large reactions."

They were more sanguine last week, writing,

"A review of diplomacy, international relations and leadership activities confirms that North Korea is not preparing for war. Its volleyball team just advanced to the quarter finals at the Asian Games in Beijing. Senior officials are receiving foreign diplomats as usual. Kim Chong il and his son were reported on 23 November visiting a plant together and Kim visited two others without his son.

The number and detail of the activities show that the North does not expect the shelling incident to escalate. There also are no reports of increased civilian or military alerts in North Korea, which would be mandatory precautions if the North expected or intended an escalation."

And 38 North weighs in about North Korea's motives.

Meanwhile for the traveling public, Wikipedia cites these 2009 statistics:

Aircraft movements: 211,404

Passengers: 30,000,000

Tonnes of cargo: 4,500,000

That's the traffic tip-toeing (whistling past the graveyard, choose your own metaphor) through Incheon International Airport, scarcely 50 kilometers from the Koreas' border.

(Incidentally, since I've just come across it, here's another travelogue from North Korea, from Der Spiegel.

 

Congratulations, and Happy Thanksgiving.

 

Take That!

Click the photo to go to Finnish broadcaster YLE, where you can watch a clip of a statement by North Korea about today's exchange of gunfire with the south. Hard to imagine, but it's actually real.